[SMM Analysis] Update on the Indonesian Nickel Ore Market; Limited Impact from China's National Day Golden Week, RKAB Uncertainty Persists

The week-long Chinese National Day holiday (October 1–8) had minimal impact on Indonesia's nickel ore market, as Indonesia did not observe a holiday period during this time, and mining operations continued as usual.

A significant regulatory development occurred on October 3, with the release of the new RKAB (Work Plan and Budget) policy. However, according to SMM's communication with Indonesian nickel ore miners, nearly a week after the release, only a very small number of miners reportedly successfully obtained approvals under the new system. Currently, the submission process involves two verification stages: one is internal verification by the mining company, and the other is verification by the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM). Although the official submission window is scheduled from October 1 to November 15, government approvals do not appear to have progressed, possibly due to stricter requirements and the transition to the new system.

Looking ahead to October 2025, sentiment in the nickel ore market has begun to recover. Some smelters have started procurement plans earlier than in previous years to secure supply and address potential RKAB-related disruptions in Q1 2026. As all mining companies are required to resubmit RKABs in 2026, market participants expect the risk of tighter supply to increase next year.

From a production perspective, weather conditions in Sulawesi and Halmahera have been generally favorable. This week was mostly dry, with only light rainfall in some areas, supporting stable mining and transportation activities. On the demand side, Indonesia's NPI production is expected to increase, which will require more ore as raw material. As for the limonite market, nickel ore supply is relatively sufficient for smelter raw materials, and demand remains stable until the end of the year, but nickel ore procurement for new HPAL projects in 2026 has already begun. Therefore, looking ahead to Q4 2025, nickel ore prices may remain at relatively high levels, partly supported by market sentiment and speculative news.